This week, the team at Biolink looked at Covid numbers in the northern hemisphere compared to those in Australia over the same period. We were looking to see if there was a trend of spikes in winter in Europe and North America, as a possible leading indicator of a milder summer of infections here.
Not a seasonal story
What we see here is more a story of transmission than seasons or temperatures. In the highlighted sections of northern summer (June, July, August) we see Australia spiked in 2020, the UK had a downturn in their first lockdown, but the rest of Europe and North America continued to experience growth in cases.
However, it seems in the following summer/winters Australia mirrored the rest of the world in case of spikes in both summer and winters (2021). So, what we are looking at is more a story of transmission and possibly travel. Meaning that Covid spreads globally, and we in Australia bring it from the rest of the world with travel and mobility.
What can we expect
It looks like Europe, the UK and the US are experiencing spikes in case numbers in the summer of '22 and if the trend from '21 continues we could expect to have a similar spike this summer in Australia.